As rice cultivating regions are anticipated to experience increasingly climatic extremes due to climate change, Filipino rice farmers are strained to adapt to frequent and drastic changes in rain-fed rice cropping systems.
To address this challenge, the University of the Philippines Los Banos (UPLB), in cooperation with Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and Huazhong Agricultural University (HZAU) is set to examine and apply short term climate forecasting techniques for a more cost-effective and sustainable techniques for smallholder farmers through the Joint Research Program (JRP) of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) and the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China.
Resonant to DOST Secretary Renato U. Solidum, Jr.’s commitment to boost the productivity of the agriculture and aquaculture sector through research and development, the joint research project strives to develop a forecast system with optimized agronomic practices for smallholder farmers that can offer guidance to Philippine rice growers and agricultural policymakers.
Data-driven early warning and adaptation recommendations for climate are set to be created by UPLB through their models of selected rice producing regions. By implementing the projects in Pangasinan, Isabela, Nueva Ecija, Oriental Mindoro, Camarines Sur, Iloilo and Bohol, the project led by UPLB aims to simulate rice growth and extensively analyze each province’s climatic stresses and create optimization strategies.
On its first year, the project consolidated long-term rice statistics, climate reanalysis data, El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators, and damage records. The project also produced empirical evidence confirming the strong negative influence of El Niño events in dry-season rice yields, while also identifying temperature and rainfall thresholds that differentially affect dry- and wet-season production.
UPLB is also set to develop and implement core analytical and modeling tools for rain-fed rice cultivation systems. Dr. Rubenito M. Lampayan, Professor at the UPLB Institute of Agriculture and Biosystems Engineering, reported that they have completed the R-based extension and provincial-level operationalization of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)-developed ORYZA rice growth model, established climate-yield panel models to quantify impacts of temperature and rainfall on yields, and conducted ENSO relationship analysis linking climate variability to rice yield patterns.
Initial results of the study found that for both of the El Niño and La Niña seasons, warming declines rice yields in a statistically significant manner. The 1°C warming in average temperature is found to reduce yields by 5.94% for rainfed and 4.06% for irrigated rice during the dry season. Meanwhile, rainfed rice yields are found to drop by 6.65% per 1°C increase while irrigated rice yields drop by 5.35% per 1°C increase during the wet season.
Furthermore, the project has also developed a Climate and Rice Yield Prediction Report for 2026-2027 which presents seasonal climate outlooks and corresponding rice yield projects for the 2025-2026 dry season, 2026 wet season, and 2026-2027 period, including anticipated climate conditions and their potential impacts across key rice-producing regions. Dr. Lampayan reported that their project’s climate models indicate the onset of a new El Niño event starting in June or July 2026, which is expected to intensify into a moderate-to-strong event by late 2026 and early 2027. According to him, an El Niño of similar magnitude occurred during the 2009–2010 dry season, which resulted in a 3.8% reduction in dry-season yields nationwide and measures regarding water management and crop scheduling are imperative to mitigate these expected yield losses.
A courtesy visit and technical meeting was also held on March 24, 2026, to solidify the partnership between the IAP-CAS, HZAU, UPLB, and the DOST-Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and Development (DOST-PCAARRD). It was attended by DOST-PCAARRD Executive Director Reynaldo V. Ebora, IAP-CAS professors Dr. Tianyi Zhang, Dr. Fei Zheng, Dr. Juan Du, and HZAU associate professors Dr. Nanyan Deng and Dr. Xiaoxia Li. The engagement facilitated in-depth project discussions and coordinated technical activities among the collaborating climatologists and agricultural experts of the DOST-MOST JRP project.
Set to be completed by the first quarter of 2027, the UPLB-led project aims to apply the short-term climate forecasting technique and rice simulation model to provide data-driven climate early warning and adaptation recommendations for the rain-fed rice cultivations in the Philippines. The implementation of the project is being funded by DOST and is being monitored by DOST-PCAARRD through its Agricultural Resources Management Research Division.